Journal of
Faculty of Civil Engineering

CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
7^th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
CONTEMPORARY ACHIEVEMENTS IN CIVIL ENGINEERING 2019 , 2019.y., pp. 683-693

	DOI: 10.14415/konferencijaGFS2019.063
	UDC: 627.8:519.23
	CC-BY-SA 4.0 license
	Author : Mirković, Uroš; Divac, Nikola; Brajović, Ljiljana; Đurić, Srđan; Radovanović, Slobodan
	Summary:
	This paper presents a development of statistical predictive model for relative horizontal displacements of “Vrutci” dam in function of air temperature and reservoir water level, as reversible effects and in function of time passed since the beginning of dam exploitation, which takes irreversible effects into account. Some parts of technical monitoring system, which are important for the model development, are described, with special attention paid to their behaviour. Measurements of horizontal radial displacements of the dam, air temperature and reservoir water levels, which all present data series suitable for regression analysis, are presented. For statistical analysis and coefficient defining in predictor functions, software “Expert Tool” developed by Water Institute “Jaroslav Černi” was employed. A data series with expected measurement values is formed and its level of agreement with actual measured data is determined. The effects of input variables on the predictive model formulation are discussed.
	Keywords:
	displacements, level, temperature, regression, model.